The Gambia’s Democratic Gamble Is Entering Its Most Critical Phase

When Gambians swept Adama Barrow into office in 2016, ending Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year authoritarian rule, the country became an unexpected symbol of democratic possibility in West Africa. The world applauded the peaceful transition, the courage of voters, and the insistence – by regional bodies and Gambian civil society alike – that the will of the people must prevail.

Seven years later, that early optimism has hardened into something more anxious. The Gambia’s democracy is still alive, still vibrant, and still determined. But it is also showing signs of strain: political fragmentation, rising mistrust, and lingering shadows from the past.

What is unfolding now is more than a clash of personalities. It is a test of whether the smallest country on the African mainland can sustain one of its most fragile democracies.

The ghosts of the old system remain

Yahya Jammeh may be in exile, but his political presence has not disappeared. Many Gambians still feel the weight of unresolved abuses: disappearances, political repression, and the trauma documented by the Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC). For others, Jammeh represents a nostalgic memory of order and social programs.

This duality – grief on one side, longing on the other – continues to shape political discourse. It fuels polarization and complicates efforts to move forward with accountability.

Barrow’s government has tried to position itself as the steward of reform. Yet it has been criticized for slow implementation of TRRC recommendations and for forming political alliances that confuse voters about the direction of the country’s transition.

These contradictions reveal the fundamental problem: Gambians disagree not only about the future but also about the past.

A fragmented political landscape

The Gambia now has more political parties than at any moment in its recent history. On one hand, this is a sign of democratic health; on the other, it creates the risk of instability.

Parties form quickly, splinter even faster, and compete fiercely for limited political space. Leaders often build movements around personalities instead of policies. Youth groups mobilize with extraordinary energy yet express deep frustration that the system does not reward new leadership.

With another presidential election approaching, the stakes are rising. Coalitions are fragile. Rumors of alliances, breakaways, and defections dominate headlines. The atmosphere grows tense.

This kind of political fragmentation, in a country still emerging from authoritarian rule, is combustible.

Security anxieties lurk beneath the surface

Ordinary Gambians rarely talk about it openly, but fears about national security remain a quiet undercurrent in political conversations.

In a region where coups – from Mali to Guinea, Burkina Faso to Guinea Bissau – have become frighteningly common, Gambians are acutely aware of their vulnerability. The country’s security sector reform stalled years ago. Old networks remain. And the lingering influence of Jammeh-era loyalists creates unease.

A democracy cannot thrive when its citizens doubt that the institutions charged with protecting it are themselves fully reformed.

The democratic gains are real – but fragile

Despite the challenges, The Gambia is not sliding backward into authoritarianism. Radio hosts speak freely. Journalists criticize the president without fear of midnight knocks on the door. Civil society groups are active and outspoken. Courts operate with greater independence than ever before.

These are achievements worth celebrating.

But democracies do not collapse all at once. They erode slowly – through mistrust, political fatigue, and the hollowing out of institutions. Gambians sense that their democratic moment, once blazing with promise, now flickers.

A path forward that requires courage on all sides

The Gambia’s transition is far from over. To preserve it, the country needs:

  • Clear political leadership committed not just to winning elections, but to strengthening institutions.
  • Full implementation of the TRRC recommendations, with justice that is both credible and fair.
  • Security sector reforms that rebuild public confidence.
  • A political culture that rewards ideas, not patronage.
  • Constructive engagement from the region and international partners, not only during moments of crisis.

None of this is easy. But Gambians have already proven, once before, that they can choose democracy even when the odds are stacked against them.

The question now is whether their leaders – and the political class as a whole – can rise to meet this moment. The world is watching, but more importantly, Gambians themselves are watching. Their transition is not just a national story; it is a test case for democratic resilience in a region starved for good news.

And the outcome is far from guaranteed.

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